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Case Study: Residential Market Analysis for Hercules Bayfront Mixed-Use Development

Hercules, California

Rendering of Hercules Bayfront for Case Study

Project Type:

  • Market Analysis
  • Market Opportunity Analysis

Product Type

  • For-Rent Apartments
  • For-Sale Attached Condominiums
  • Office
  • Retail

Development Concepts

  • Adaptive Reuse or Conversion
  • Redevelopment
  • Transit-Oriented Development

The Challenge

Traditional mixed-use neighborhoods and integrated transit located along the waterfront in Hercules, California is the foundation of Hercules Bayfront. Hercules is centrally located in the San Francisco Bay Area along the I-80 corridor and is within minutes of well-known metropolitan cities, such as Berkeley, San Francisco, and Oakland. Hercules Bayfront is a multi-phased, master-planned, high-density, mixed-use district planned for development on 42-acres of waterfront land situated in the City of Hercules. The City of Hercules and its community members envision the waterfront area to be a unique and special place. When complete, the waterfront is planned to include a pedestrian and transit-oriented neighborhood (transit village that is expected to contain 1,300 homes as well as commercial space, offices, and work-live units) where water ferry, train, and bus will be available to the residents and surrounding community in a single multi-modal transit station. The challenge is to create a new infill planned community that capitalizes on transit and a Bayfront setting and yet is consistent with the larger community that it will join.


Anderson Pacific, on behalf of Hercules Bayfront, LLC, turned to RCLCO to examine the residential market potential of its planned Hercules Bayfront community. RCLCO conducted residential market analysis to determine the viability of Hercules Bayfront’s planned rental apartments, and for-sale townhomes and condominiums.  As part of the residential market analysis, RCLCO analyzed general economic development trends and forecasts that provided the socioeconomic context for the area, identified both current and future local sources of competition in for-sale housing,  multifamily housing and apartments, prepared Hercules Bayfront apartment and for-sale demand forecasts that reflected the preceding demand/supply dynamics, and translated the market research findings into development conclusions for internal business planning. RCLCO also provided input on achievable commercial rents.

Over the past 12 years, Anderson Pacific has worked closely with RCLCO on all of its entitlement and development projects throughout California. Their thoughtful approach to the market, balanced with strong analytics, in-depth review of the region and submarket, and understanding of the quality level of the asset being delivered compared to the market, all played a collective role in providing us the necessary information to make sound business decisions.

Ryan Altoon

Executive Vice President, Anderson Pacific, LLC


The City of Hercules broke ground on the Hercules Intermodal Transit Center (ITC, new center for buses, trains, and ferries and key to establishing the accompanying Hercules Bayfront transit village) in mid-2013. Upon completion of the “path to transit” phase and other important milestones, the 42-acre master planned, transit-oriented development, Hercules Bayfront, was then able move forward alongside the City’s recently permitted ITC project. Hercules Bayfront, LLC utilizes RCLCO’s various market analyses in discussions with prospective partners leading to the execution of future private sector development.


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