- Annual headline CPI inflation rose 10 bps MoM to 2.4% in May while core CPI held steady at 2.8%. Inflation is projected to increase later in 2025 as tariff policies take effect.
- The Fed held rates steady in May at 4.25-4.5%, amid increasing inflationary risks from tariff policy. It is expected to cut rates 1-2 times in 2025.
- Job growth remained strong at 139K in May, slightly below the trailing 12-month average. Job growth is projected to moderate later in the year, as tariffs slow the economy.
- Annual wage growth remained strong at 3.9%, unchanged MoM. Over the last three months, wages also grew by a strong 3.8% (annualized).
- Trailing-year multifamily completions fell slightly in April*. Permits and starts rose, although they remained below recent highs. Single-family completions and permits fell on a TTM basis.
* Latest data available.
Initial and continued unemployment claims trended higher in May, suggesting some softening in the labor market despite low unemployment and ongoing job growth. Initial claims rose 3.6% from April, while continued claims increased 1.5%, surpassing 1.9 million on a trailing four-week average basis. Still, both measures remain well below their long-term averages, underscoring the continued strength of the U.S. economy.
