- Annual headline CPI inflation fell 10 bps MoM to 2.3% in April while core CPI held steady at 2.8%, their lowest rates since 2021. Inflation is projected to increase later in 2025 as tariff policies take effect.
- Consumer expectations from the University of Michigan survey spiked to 6.5% over the next year and 4.4% over the next 5 years.
- The Fed held rates steady in May at 4.25-4.5%, amid increasing inflationary risks from tariff policy. It is expected to cut rates 1-2 times in 2025.
- Employment growth remained strong at 177K in April, above the trailing 12-month average. Job growth is projected to slow meaningfully later in the year.
- Annual wage growth remained strong at 3.8%, unchanged MoM. Over the last three months, wages grew at a more moderate rate of 2.6% (annualized).
- Consumer sentiment declined for a fourth consecutive month in April to 52.2, the third lowest reading on record. Views of current conditions and future expectations both fell, possibly due to inflation fears, recession risks, and elevated uncertainty.
- Multifamily construction continued to moderate in March* with TTM average completions and permits both lower.
* Latest data available.
