- Annual headline CPI inflation rose 20 bps to 2.9% in August while core CPI held steady at 3.1%. Tariffs have had a limited impact on inflation to date but are expected to affect prices in coming months.
- The Fed is expected to cut rates at its September meeting as the employment market cools, although inflationary risks remain.
- August job growth slowed to 22K and three-month average employment growth was a very low 29K.
- Annual wage growth fell 20 bps to 3.7% in August. Over the last three months, wages grew by 3.4% (annualized).
- Trailing-year multifamily completions fell in July*. Permits have trended up through much of 2025 but remain below recent highs.
* Latest data available.
Employment growth between April 2024 and March 2025 was revised down by 911K as part of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmarking process. The revision is subject to change pending finalized employment numbers but suggests that the labor market was much weaker than previously thought. The cooling job market will play a large role in the Fed’s decision to cut rates in September, even as inflationary risks persist.
