- Annual headline CPI inflation held steady at 3.4% while core inflation fell 10 bps to 2.4%.
- Annual Final Demand PPI and All Commodities PPI rose by 5.4% and 9.9%, Construction materials prices rose more than 10%.
- The 10-Year UST yield ended August at 4.75% and rose to 5.0% in mid-September for the first time since 2023.
- The Federal Reserve is expected to increase rates at its September meeting. The current rate target range is 3.5-3.75%.
- Employment grew by 162K in August, well above the trailing-year average. Three-month average job growth stood at 71K.
- Annual wage growth fell 10 bps to 3.1% in August, below inflation. Over the last three months, wage growth accelerated to 2.8% (annualized).
- Average 30-year mortgage rates climbed in August and exceeded 6.7% in early September.
* Latest data available.
Labor force participation among the 25-54 age cohort has climbed above pre-COVID levels, while participation among workers age 55+ has trended lower, creating a widening divergence between the two groups. In August, prime-age participation held steady, while the 55+ participation rate ticked up modestly from a recent low.
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