- Annual headline CPI inflation rose 30 bps MoM to 2.7% in June and core CPI held rose 10 bps to 2.9%. Inflation is projected to continue to rise as tariff policies take effect.
- The Fed held rates steady in June at 4.25-4.5%, amid increasing inflationary risks from tariff policy. It is expected to cut rates 1-2 times in 2025.
- Job growth remained strong at 147K in June, slightly below the trailing 12-month average. Job growth is projected to slow meaningfully later in the year.
- Annual wage growth slowed slightly to 3.7% in June. Over the last three months, wages grew by 3.1% (annualized).
- Trailing-year multifamily completions fell slightly in May*. Permits and starts rose, although they remained below recent highs. Single-family completions held steady on a TTM basis.
* Latest data available.
Shipping volume fell 6% YoY at major U.S. ports in May 2025, following the new administration’s announcement of higher tariffs. Volume may continue to slow in the near term, depending on whether those tariffs take effect.
