- The Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its September meeting due to the cooling labor market. Additional cuts are expected.
- September private employment fell by 32K, far below the 12-month average growth of 96K, according to ADP.
- Consumer sentiment fell slightly in October, remaining far below the long-term average. Views of current conditions rose while consumer expectations fell.
- Trailing-year multifamily completions fell for a seventh consecutive month in August*. Permits fell but remain close to recent highs.
* Latest data available.
Note: Due to the government shut down, some of our usual charts (particularly related to inflation and employment) are not available. We have utilized alternative data sources when relevant.
According to ADP, private-sector employment growth fell by 32K in September. However, despite the overall cooling of the labor market, large firms (those with 500 or more employees) have continued to hire in recent months, with job losses affecting smaller- and medium-sized companies. The divergence likely reflects greater caution among smaller businesses, which tend to slow hiring practices more quickly amid economic uncertainty.
